TAF AMD LIMP 182219Z 1818/1918 CNL= 0000499500 380 AXNT20 KNHC 182230 TWDAT Tropical Weather Di cu ion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 19 2024 Tropical Weather Di cu ion for North America Central America Gulf of Mexico Caribbean Sea northern ection of South America and Atlantic Ocean to the African coa t from the Equator to 31N. The following information i ba ed on atellite imagery weather ob ervation radar and meteorological analy i . Ba ed on 1800 UTC urface analy i and atellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The mon oon trough enter the Atlantic near 11N16W to 10N16W. The ITCZ extend from 10N16W to 07N32W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate convection i noted from 03N to 11N between 15W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pre ure centered near 30N78W and it a ociated ridge dominate the ba in with moderate to fre h E to SE return flow. Sea are 6 to 9 ft acro the e wind . Sea are 3 to 5 ft acro the remainder of the ba in. The remnant of Sara are producing i olated hower and thunder torm over the Bay of Campeche. For the foreca t the aforementioned high pre ure y tem centered over the E United State dominate the ba in with moderate to fre h E to SE return flow except fre h to trong from the Yucatan Channel and Penin ula to the Texa coa t which will per i t through tonight. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight reaching from S-central Loui iana to near Tamaulipa Mexico early Tue then from Apalachee Bay to Tampico Mexico early Wed. Reinforcing fre h to trong northerly wind and large ea are foreca t acro the ba in Wed night a the front pu he SE of the ba in behind the front tarting Wed. The front will pu h SE of the ba in by early Thu with condition gradually improving through the end of the week a high pre ure build in. Meanwhile convection a ociated with the remnant of Sara currently over the Yucatan Penin ula will move into the Bay of Campeche today eventually merging with the cold front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tationary front extend from outh of the Leeward I land to 16N64W with a trough from that point to 14N70W. Scattered hower and i olated thunder torm are along the tationary front and trough. Moderate to fre h E to SE wind are in the Lee of Cuba to the Gulf of Hondura within the NW Caribbean. Gentle to locally fre h wind are noted in the Windward Pa age lee of Jamaica and outh of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Mainly gentle to moderate wind prevail el ewhere except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean. Sea are 6 to 8 ft in the NW Caribbean 4 to 6 ft el ewhere where the locally fre h wind plume are and 3 ft or le acro the remainder of the ba in except 6 to 8 ft near Atlantic Pa age . For the foreca t the remnant of Sara and a ociated convection currently over the Bay of Campeche will continue to hift away from the NW Caribbean through tonight while di ipating. Fre h to trong wind will pul e in the Lee of Cuba Windward Pa age and outh of the Dominican Republic through tonight. Fre h to trong wind in the NW Caribbean will dimini h by Tue a the next cold front move toward the area from the NW. The front i foreca t to enter the NW Caribbean Wed night reaching from central Cuba to near NE Nicaragua early Fri with increa ing wind and building ea behind it. Meanwhile ea of around 8 ft in northerly well in the Atlantic pa age will ub ide today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging anchored by a high pre ure over the we tern Atlantic i building acro the we tern ubtropical Atlantic water in the wake of a tationary front that extend from 31N50W outhwe t to the Leeward I land . A pre-frontal trough i producing cattered moderate convection within 250 nm ahead of the front. Sea range 8 to 11 ft in NW to N well. The reinforcing trough i bringing reinforcing well a well a fre h to trong wind . Fre h to trong S-SW wind are al o N of 28.5N in the area of convection. To the ea t a 1008 mb low i near 30N24W with a related trough extending NE of the low. Moderate wind and 8 to 11 ft ea are near the low. Broad ridging with gentle to moderate wind and 5 to 7 ft ea prevail acro the remainder of the water . For the foreca t we t of 55W the tationary front will have active convection per i ting within 200 nm ahead of the front through tonight. Large ea are following the front and will continue through tonight. A reinforcing front or trough will clip the NE water on Tue with increa ing wind and building ea . The next cold front may move off the SE United State late Wed night with another round of increa ing wind and building ea . Thi front may reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahama by early Fri. $$ AReinhart 0000014500 805 SPTU22 LTAA 182241 SPECI LTCW 182241Z VRB04KT 4500 -TSRA BR FEW020CB BKN030 04/03 Q1017 RESHRASN RMK RWY29 VRB03KT 2CB020 5CU030
